Discounted Cash Flow Dashboard
2010-2025 historical cash flows, 2026-2030 projection, 10.0% discount rate, 2.0% terminal growth
2025 free cash flow
$8.92B
-11.2% vs 2024
Most recent reported free cash flow
DCF enterprise value
$128.97B
69.9% from terminal value
Present value of forecast cash flows plus terminal value
IRR at $150B entry
6.28%
-3.72 pts vs hurdle
Compared with a 10.0% hurdle rate
2025 core OCF ex-D&A
$9.48B
80.7% of 2025 OCF
Operating cash flow excluding depreciation add-back
Historical vs projected free cash flow
Actual cash generation through 2025 with the conservative 5.0% forward-growth case layered on top
Operating cash flow composition: depreciation add-back vs cash generated beyond depreciation
Stacked bars isolate the depreciation component inside OCF; the line tracks D&A as a share of operating cash flow
DCF valuation waterfall
Enterprise value is dominated by discounted terminal value, with explicit five-year cash flows still contributing nearly a third
Valuation setup
Projection growth: 5.0%
Discount rate: 10.0%
Terminal growth: 2.0%
Purchase case: $150.00B
The model uses the projected free cash flow stream from 2026 through 2030, discounts each year back to today, and adds a perpetuity-based terminal value at the end of 2030.
Discounted forecast cash flows contribute $38.87B, while discounted terminal value contributes $90.11B, producing a total enterprise value of $128.97B.
Explicit forecast 30.1% of EV
Terminal value 69.9% of EV
Cash-flow sustainability read
- Depreciation made up 32.7% of OCF in 2021, but only 19.3% in 2025, showing that reported operating cash flow has become less dependent on accounting add-backs.
- The five-year average depreciation share of OCF is 23.0%, meaning roughly three quarters of recent operating cash flow has been generated beyond the non-cash depreciation reversal.
- 2025 core OCF excluding depreciation was $9.48B, versus capex of $2.82B. That still leaves meaningful room for free cash flow, although a heavier reinvestment cycle would narrow it.
- The $150B acquisition case implies an IRR below the 10.0% hurdle, so the valuation only clears the return threshold if the entry price is closer to the DCF enterprise value.
Projected free cash flow discount schedule
Five-year forecast plus terminal value discounted at 10.0%
| Period | Cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $9.36B | 0.9091 | $8.51B |
| 2027 | $9.83B | 0.8264 | $8.13B |
| 2028 | $10.32B | 0.7513 | $7.76B |
| 2029 | $10.84B | 0.6830 | $7.40B |
| 2030 | $11.38B | 0.6209 | $7.07B |
| Terminal | $145.12B | 0.6209 | $90.11B |
Recent cash-flow quality snapshot
2021-2025 annual view of OCF, depreciation, capex, and free cash flow
| Year | OCF | D&A | OCF ex-D&A | Capex | FCF | D&A / OCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $7.20B | $2.35B | $4.85B | $1.09B | $6.11B | 32.7% |
| 2022 | $7.77B | $2.22B | $5.55B | $1.30B | $6.47B | 28.6% |
| 2023 | $12.88B | $2.14B | $10.74B | $1.60B | $11.29B | 16.6% |
| 2024 | $12.04B | $2.15B | $9.88B | $1.99B | $10.05B | 17.9% |
| 2025 | $11.74B | $2.26B | $9.48B | $2.82B | $8.92B | 19.3% |