Macro Regime Dashboard

Jan 2021 to Jun 2026 • S&P 500, VIX, 10Y Treasury yield, and Fed Funds

S&P 500 change
105.4%
Window performance
From Jan 2021 to Jun 2026
Latest regime
Bull
VIX 16.1
Fed Funds 3.63% • 10Y 4.47%
Historical bull probability
58.4%
Base 34.0% • Bear 7.6%
Regime counts across 1,429 observations
Bull vs bear 6M return gap
23.6pp
Bull 10.4% • Bear -13.2%
Average forward six-month S&P 500 return spread
Regime logic

This dashboard tracks macro regimes inferred from market volatility and rate behavior. Bull periods align with sub-20 VIX readings and comparatively stable Treasury moves, bear periods require both elevated VIX above 25 and rapidly rising rates, and base captures the middle ground.

The regime overlays are meant to contextualize the path of the S&P 500, not replace the underlying time series. Use the background bands and cross-sectional charts together to compare how volatility and rates cluster with later market outcomes.

 Bull  Base  Bear
Current read-through

Over the most recent 126 observations, bull conditions accounted for 71.4%, base for 28.6%, and bear for 0.0%. The latest observation remains in a bull state, with volatility back near the lower end of the sample and no bear observations in the latest six-month window.

Historically, the strongest separation in forward returns appears between bull and bear states: bull observations have averaged 10.4% over the next six months versus -13.2% in bear conditions. Base periods have been close to flat at 1.1%.

G1 • S&P 500 with macro regime bands
G2 • VIX, 10Y Treasury yield, and Fed Funds through time
G3 • Historical scenario probabilities and average forward return
G4 • Forward 6M S&P 500 return distribution by regime
Risk versus outcome • VIX and later S&P 500 returns
Regime summary statistics
Regime Count Probability Avg 6M Return Avg VIX Avg Fed Funds Avg 10Y Avg Run Length
Bull83458.4%10.4%16.14.01%3.76%15.7
Base48634.0%1.1%22.82.29%2.93%7.6
Bear1097.6%-13.2%28.71.97%3.35%9.9