Macro-Quantitative Modeling Dashboard

Jan 2000 – May 2026 • 5-chart macro relationship set

Fed Funds Rate
3.63%
-0.70pp vs ~12m prior
May 2026
10Y Treasury Yield
4.48%
+0.06pp vs ~12m prior
May 2026
Inflation YoY
4.17%
+1.79pp vs ~12m prior
May 2026
Unemployment Rate
4.30%
0.00pp vs ~12m prior
May 2026
Real GDP YoY
2.68%
+0.67pp vs ~12m prior
Jan 2026 latest available
36m FF / 10Y Corr.
-0.08
Δ -0.74 vs ~12m prior
May 2026
Modeling frame

The sample spans Jan 2000 through May 2026, with the rolling-correlation view beginning in Dec 2002. The chart mix applies the requested selection rules directly: 2 charts from G1, 2 from G2, and 1 from G3.

The inflation-unemployment sample has a Pearson correlation of -0.43, indicating a moderate inverse tradeoff across overlapping observations. The Fed Funds / GDP overlap is weaker at 0.09, so the time-path view matters more than a simple static slope.

G1 × 2 charts G2 × 2 charts G3 × 1 chart All requested relationships included
Current regime snapshot

Latest monthly readings show a 3.63% Fed Funds rate, a 4.48% 10-year yield, 4.17% inflation, and 4.30% unemployment. The latest GDP reading is 2.68% in Jan 2026, while the 36-month policy/yield correlation is -0.08.

The rolling Fed Funds / 10Y correlation peaked at 0.93 in Feb 2024 and troughed at -0.91 in Feb 2015. The 10Y minus Fed Funds spread was negative for 66 months in the full sample, which is shaded directly in the rate-path chart.

Phillips corr: -0.43 GDP / FF corr: 0.09 Heatmap overlap: 100 rows
Policy Rate vs 10-Year Yield Timeline
Fed Funds and the long-end rate on the same scale, with negative 10Y-minus-Fed-Funds spread regimes shaded.
36-Month Rolling Correlation of Fed Funds and 10Y Yield
Positive and negative co-movement regimes over the trailing three-year window.
Inflation vs Unemployment
Phillips-curve style scatter, with point color encoding the Fed Funds rate.
Real GDP Growth vs Fed Funds Rate Path
Quarterly GDP YoY bars overlaid with the monthly policy-rate path.
Macro Relationship Correlation Heatmap
Pearson correlations across the overlapping sample used for the multivariate summary.
Selected chart set and fit rationale
Chart name Group Commonality Why it fits Required columns Optional columns Suggested mappings One-sentence insight
Policy Rate vs 10-Year Yield Timeline G1 — Rates & transmission 0.93 Foundational view of the short-rate path against the long-end response across cycles. observation_date, FEDFUNDS, DGS10 Rate_Spread_10Y_minus_FF x=date; y=rate (%); color=series; tooltip=date + exact yields Short and long rates moved together across major cycles, but the long end remained above the policy rate by the latest observation.
36-Month Rolling Correlation of Fed Funds and 10Y Yield G1 — Rates & transmission 0.91 Directly addresses the requested co-movement diagnostic and exposes regime shifts not visible in level charts. observation_date, Rolling_Corr_FF_Yield_36m FEDFUNDS, DGS10 x=date; y=rolling correlation; color=positive/negative regime; tooltip=date + correlation The three-year correlation swung from strongly positive to slightly negative by 2026, signaling a softer lockstep between policy and the long end.
Inflation vs Unemployment Scatter G2 — Macro tradeoffs 0.89 Best compact form for the requested inflation-unemployment relationship while preserving rate regime context. Inflation_YoY, UNRATE observation_date, FEDFUNDS, DGS10 x=unemployment; y=inflation; color=Fed Funds; tooltip=date + macro values The sample retains a modest inverse inflation-unemployment relationship, with higher policy-rate episodes clustering in hotter inflation conditions.
Real GDP Growth vs Fed Funds Rate Path G2 — Macro tradeoffs 0.87 Pairs the requested growth measure with the policy path over time without losing quarterly GDP swings. observation_date, GDP_YoY, FEDFUNDS Rate_Spread_10Y_minus_FF x=date; y=gdp growth; y2=Fed Funds; color=series; tooltip=date + exact values Growth slowed through the late-tightening phase and then stabilized as the policy rate eased from its peak.
Macro Relationship Correlation Heatmap G3 — Multivariate summary 0.82 Non-redundant summary layer that shows which pairings are strongest once overlapping observations are aligned. FEDFUNDS, DGS10, Inflation_YoY, UNRATE, GDP_YoY none x=indicator; y=indicator; color=Pearson correlation; tooltip=pair + coefficient Rates share the strongest positive relationship with each other, while unemployment tends to move opposite to both inflation and policy rates.