JV Waterfall Exit Pressure Test
Interactive scenario grid of net LP IRR across exit cases and hold periods, with live hurdle stress, preferred-return trap mapping, and a tornado-style ranking of which lever moves hurdle clearance the most.
Selected hurdle
5.79%
Exported pref baseline
Scenarios clearing hurdle
1 / 9
8 miss the current pref
Near misses (<50bps short)
2
Concentrated in high exit cases
Worst shortfall
-10.51pp
3Y Low exit case
Interactive hurdle stress control
Best case: 3Y High 5.80%
Median scenario: 1.67%
Average clearance: -4.05pp
At the exported 5.79% pref, only one scenario clears the hurdle and two additional high-exit cases sit within 50bps of it.
Where the pref is getting trapped
- Only the 3-year high exit clears the exported pref, and only by roughly 1 basis point.
- The two closest misses are the 5-year high and 7-year high cases, both still shy by less than 40bps.
- Low-exit cases are structurally underwater, with shortfalls ranging from -5.89pp to -10.51pp.
How the lever ranking is framed
- Exit price sensitivity is measured around the 5-year base case by stepping from base to low/high exit scenarios.
- Holding period sensitivity compares the 3-year and 7-year base cases against the 5-year base case.
- Hurdle rate sensitivity uses a +/-100bps move in the preferred return to show how much hurdle clearance shifts even when scenario IRR stays fixed.
Net LP IRR by hold period and exit case
Scenario paths versus the preferred return line
Scenario grid: exit case × holding period → net LP IRR
Preferred return clearance map at 5.79% hurdle
Trap severity ranked by shortfall to the hurdle
Tornado view: which lever moves hurdle clearance the most?
Scenario detail table
| Holding Period | Exit Case | Gross IRR | Net LP IRR | Selected Hurdle | Gap to Hurdle | Status |
|---|