What is shifting most clearly
- Long-run mix shift: renewables rose from 4.1% in 1978 to 12.1% in 2024, while fossil fell from 91.8% to 79.8%.
- The pace changed after 2008: renewables gained about +0.5pp per year from 2008-2024, roughly 18x the +0.0pp pace seen from 1978-2008.
- Fossil is not shrinking evenly: coal drops sharply after 2008, gas expands, and oil stays comparatively steady, which is why total fossil share falls more slowly than coal alone.
- Prices trend higher over time, but not in a one-for-one pattern with the transition: the steepest annual price jump arrives in 2022, after a long stretch when renewables were rising and retail prices were comparatively stable.
Annual mix through 2024
Monthly price through May 2026
Indexed comparison base year: 2008