Manufacturing Overtime vs Private-Sector Total Hours
Monthly BLS hours from 2016 to 2025, with the pre-2020 baseline anchored to the 2016-2019 average
Apr 2020 OT trough
The deepest point in manufacturing overtime during the shock.
Latest overtime
Latest total hours
Current OT regime
Takeaway
Pre-2020 baseline = mean of 2016-2019 monthly readings
How to read the split
1. Raw monthly hours: the shock hits overtime harder than total weekly hours
2. Re-indexed to Jan 2020 = 100: recovery paths separate after April 2020
3. Overtime vs its pre-2020 baseline: rebound, then drift back below normal
4. Total hours vs baseline: the post-2020 reset remains decisively higher
5. Baseline divergence gap: total hours climb while overtime stays below trend
6. Relationship map: the system shifts rightward in total hours, not upward in overtime
Period averages relative to the pre-2020 baseline
| Period | Avg overtime | Avg total hours | OT vs baseline | Total vs baseline |
|---|