10-Year Rental Property Cash Flow Stress Test
French short-term rental project · 3 scenarios · debt coverage, occupancy resilience, and cash-flow pressure
Project Basis
Modeled acquisition and renovation basis at Year 1.
Baseline 10Y Cash Flow
Cumulative after debt service over the 10-year hold.
Rate Shock Years Below 1.0x
Coverage stays impaired until the model re-clears 1.0x.
Peak Break-Even Occupancy
Highest occupancy needed just to cover costs and debt.
What this dashboard emphasizes
This dashboard centers on lender-style resilience tests for the 10-year operating model. The first two charts focus on the coverage ratio and occupancy requirement needed to stay solvent under each scenario.
The middle section isolates the rate-shock case to show the annual cash crunch created when NOI trails debt service. The later views compare cumulative cash-flow erosion and visualize the DSCR cushion above or below the 1.0x threshold.
Baseline
Rate Shock (+200 bps)
Stagflation
Scenario scorecard
| Scenario | Interest Rate | Minimum DSCR | Years < 1.0x | Peak Break-Even Occ. | 10Y Cumulative Cash Flow |
|---|
Debt Service Coverage Ratio by scenario
Tracks when each scenario falls below the 1.0x debt-coverage threshold.
Break-even occupancy by scenario
Higher percentages indicate less room for booking volatility before cash flow turns negative.
Rate-shock cash crunch: NOI versus debt service
Grouped bars compare the operating surplus to annual debt service, with cash flow plotted on the secondary axis.
Cumulative cash flow path
Shows whether operating deficits reverse over time or compound through the hold period.
DSCR cushion heatmap
Specialist risk view of DSCR minus the 1.0x threshold; red cells indicate under-coverage.